Apple's quarterly iPad revenue will significantly decline in the fourth quarter of 2023 on a year-over-year basis, according to estimated figures shared today by Erik Woodring, an analyst at investment firm Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley estimates that Apple will report iPad revenue of $7.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, which would be a decline of approximately 23% compared to the $9.4 billion that Apple reported for the segment in the year-ago quarter.
The year-ago quarter will be a tough comparison for iPad revenue, according to Morgan Stanley, as Apple announced updated iPad Pro models and the 10th-generation iPad last October. Over the weekend, two reports indicated that Apple plans to announce updated iPad Air, iPad mini, and entry-level iPad models this week, although some credible sources like Bloomberg's Mark Gurman have cast doubt on this rumor.
It's unclear if Morgan Stanley expects new iPads to launch this month, but given the firm expects iPad revenue to significantly decline this quarter, the firm is at least not expecting any iPad updates that are major enough for revenue growth. Only minor changes are expected for the next iPad Air, iPad mini, and entry-level iPad whenever the devices are released, including an M2 chip for the iPad Air and an A16 Bionic chip for the iPad mini.
There are also rumors of a third-generation Apple Pencil with interchangeable magnetic tips for drawing, technical drawing, and digital painting.
Apple has yet to release any new iPads this year. If that trend continues for the remainder of 2023, it would be the first calendar year with no new iPads released in the device's 13-year history. The two reports expecting new iPad models this week said Apple's announcement would likely be on Tuesday, so we'll see what happens tomorrow.
