Apple's new MacBook Neo could help the company grow notebook shipments by nearly 8% this year, even as the broader laptop market faces a hefty downturn, according to a new report from TrendForce.
The research firm estimates global notebook shipments will fall 9.2% year-over-year in 2026, with the potential for steeper declines if demand stays weak. Rising memory and CPU costs are said to have pushed most PC makers to pare back their product lines and play it safe with inventory. Meanwhile, Apple is going in the other direction.
Announced on Wednesday with a starting price of $599, the MacBook Neo is targeting the $500-$800 mainstream segment, which is typically dominated by Windows laptops and Chromebooks aimed at education and general productivity users. With an education discount, the Neo's starting price drops to $499 – well below the $1,000 floor that has defined the MacBook lineup for years.
TrendForce projects Apple's notebook shipments will grow 7.7% in 2026, lifting macOS market share to 13.2%. The MacBook Neo alone could account for 4 to 5 million units shipped, according to the firm. That said, the report notes that a deciding factor may be how consumers respond to the 8GB memory configuration, given that Apple doesn't offer a RAM upgrade option.
TrendForce credits Apple's in-house silicon and standardized product specs for Apple's ability to undercut competitors on price just as component costs are rising. Custom Apple silicon chips reduce dependence on external CPU suppliers, while Apple's concentrated memory configurations are said to give the company stronger bargaining power with suppliers. It's a different story for Windows OEMs, which tend to have more fragmented product portfolios that make cost management harder when component costs are volatile.
The MacBook Neo launches next Wednesday, March 11. If it manages to gain traction in the entry-level segment, TrendForce claims it could reshape the pricing dynamics across the global notebook market.
