Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster today released a brief report highlighting April data from market research firm NPD looking at Apple's U.S. Mac and iPod sales. The data shows Apple's Mac sales coming in flat year-over-year, and while Munster acknowledges that it has become increasingly difficult to extrapolate NPD's numbers to Apple's global sales performance, he views the latest data as "neutral to slight positive" relative to expectations for the company.
Based on the differences between NPD data and Apple reported Mac sales over the past few quarters, we note it is becoming more difficult to draw conclusions from NPD data (see table below). We note that some of the more recent supply issues with the redesigned Macs have impacted the Apple reported numbers over the past two quarters. At the end of the day, we believe this April data point is likely a neutral to slight positive given our expectation that iPads will continue to cannibalize Macs over the next few years.
Munster stands by his predictions of 5% year-over-year decline in Mac sales for the second quarter as customers await updated models and the PC market remains weak.
On the iPod side, Munster only briefly cites NPD data showing sales sliding 36% year-over-year, compared to the Piper Jaffray estimate of a 23% decline for the entire quarter on a worldwide basis. But with iPod sales now representing only about 2% of Apple's revenue, the impact of the continued decline in iPod sales as customers shift increasingly to smartphones will be negligible.
