Apple believes the 6.1-inch iPhone 12 will outsell the 5.4-inch iPhone 12 mini and the more expensive 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro and 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max, according to shipment estimates shared in an investor's note today by Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
According to Kuo, Apple's estimated shipment allocations for the new iPhone models are as follows:
- 5.4-inch iPhone 12 Mini - 20 to 25%
- 6.1-inch iPhone 12 - 40 to 45%
- 6.1-inch iPhone 12 Pro - 15 to 20%
- 6.7-inch iPhone 12 Pro Max - 15 to 20%
Though there has been demand for a smaller iPhone, smaller screen sizes are not popular worldwide. It will be the cheapest iPhone available with rumors suggesting it will sell for $699, but Kuo says that even with the lower price point, it will not meet the demand for a larger display.
The iPhone 12 Pro and iPhone 12 Pro Max have better hardware and are higher-tier models, but are more expensive, so Kuo's conclusion is that the iPhone 12 "will have the highest shipment allocation" of the iPhone 12 models.
Kuo believes that price point is critical to the iPhone 12's success. Apple's $699 iPhone 11 accounted for 70 to 75 percent of iPhone shipments during the first three quarters of 2020, which Kuo attributes to price. 5G is "crucial" but price point will be the "critical factor" when it comes to iPhone sales.
Recent rumors indicate the iPhone 12 mini will start at $699, the iPhone 12 will start at $799, the iPhone 12 Pro will start at $999, and the iPhone 12 Pro Max will start at $1,099.
In total, Kuo believes Apple will ship 80 to 85 million units of all iPhone 12 models in the fourth quarter of 2020, higher than the 75 million iPhone 11 units (all models) shipped in the fourth quarter of 2019.
The shipment forecast of 12 series components is 80-85 mn units, higher than 11 series' 75 mn units in 4Q19. However, we think the demand for 12 series in 4Q20 will be lower than that of the 11 series in 4Q19 because of the shorter sales period. Therefore, the shipment forecast of components in 4Q20 does not reflect the real demand for the 12 series.
Apple could miss some peak season demand in the United States and Europe due to the late launch timeline and the "tight supply" after the iPhone 12 series launches. We haven't yet heard much on what iPhone supply will look like, but it's reasonable to assume that since production was delayed into October, we could see some models sell out quickly.
The iPhone 12 mini and the iPhone 12 Pro Max, which are not expected to be available until November could be some of the most constrained models. The iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro are expected to be available for pre-order the Friday after the event in October, while the iPhone 12 mini and Pro Max will allegedly launch on different dates in November.
